Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa046…14a4 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-31%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days−$4
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$97
other 35% +$9
sports 13% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.0% -35.8% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 24 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 21% -36.6%
≤90d 24 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 21% -36.6%
all 24 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 21% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 21% -36.6%
10% -62.7% 17% -42.7%
15% -66.3% 17% -48.2%
20% -69.6% 12% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$15 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $105 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $93 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Urug BUY 2¢ $1 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/ BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $10 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs BUY 5¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croa BUY 4¢ $10 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 6¢ $3 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovin BUY 10¢ $5 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $2 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 10¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records