Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A0 0xa045…97cc sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$17
politics 33% −$8
sports 9% +$85
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -13.7% -21.9% 26% 16% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 16% -8.0%
10% -29.4% 16% -16.8%
15% -36.2% 16% -24.8%
20% -42.4% 16% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$9 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$978
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage633d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $524 $524 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $454 $454 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $1,996 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $552 −$1 -0%
Kings vs. Capitals Nov 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 17 $12 +$14 +117%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Jazz Nov 13 $10 +$12 +122%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 05 $5 $0 -7%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jan 10 $102 +$102 +100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Jan 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $116 +$99 +85%
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? Oct 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $12 +$19 +163%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $524 1h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $454 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 24h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $441 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $551 24h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $442 34h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $552 34h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $995 34h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $996 2d
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Kings 46¢ $7 219d
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Kings 46¢ $7 219d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Knicks 48¢ $12 219d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 41¢ $10 222d
Penguins vs. Predators BUY Predators 46¢ $12 222d
Pacers vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 45¢ $10 225d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $5 283d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 342d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 366d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 401d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 402d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 404d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 405d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 405d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 406d
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 408d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $977.51 · official $977.51 (match) · 61 history records