Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa042…cba4 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,379 (+16%) realized +$12,094 · open +$1,285
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%66W / 93L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$1,670est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$5,860
14 days−$5,159
30 days−$3,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$10,112
other 2% +$775
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 42% -47.6%
≤30d 94 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 38% -16.8%
≤90d 159 -3.4% -12.6% 42% 39% +1.7%
all 159 -3.4% -12.6% 42% 39% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 39% +1.7%
10% -21.0% 38% -8.0%
15% -28.6% 38% -16.9%
20% -35.6% 36% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$655 vs −$362 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3,815
Realized+$12,094
Unrealized+$1,285
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses66 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,670
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
History coverage52d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $2,443 +$1,243 (+104%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 40¢ $1,324 $1,371 +$47 (+4%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over $6 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $260 −$255 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $14 +$20 +146%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $26 −$2 -9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Ida Wobker Jun 18 $95 +$50 +52%
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 18 $158 +$65 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $327 +$471 +144%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar Jun 16 $446 +$509 +114%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $440 −$434 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2,990 −$2,951 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $41 +$29 +70%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2,030 −$1,999 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $518 +$312 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,543 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 −$99 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $835 −$820 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $26 +$1 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $721 −$712 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,030 −$1,997 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $207 −$203 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $184 +$416 +226%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $927 +$682 +74%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $3,106 +$2,744 +88%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,189 −$1,168 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Martha Matoula Jun 12 $913 −$21 -2%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $37 −$37 -98%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $2,276 −$2,231 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $652 +$948 +146%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $35 +$45 +129%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Balshaw/Martineau Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $288 +$719 +250%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $568 −$558 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $99 +$97 +97%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 10 $40 −$39 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 09 $14 +$16 +109%
ITF Hurghada: Leilany Ipunesso vs Karla Popovic Jun 09 $53 +$65 +124%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Paul/Shelton Jun 08 $18 +$2 +9%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $282 −$278 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,380 −$1,350 -98%
Ilkley: Completed Match: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $15 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,047 −$2,996 -98%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $189 −$187 -99%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $119 −$117 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $470 −$462 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $128 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $1,018 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $203 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 31¢ $260 23h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Malawi 11¢ $2 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $12 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 53¢ $4 29h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 59¢ $10 29h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Ida Wobker BUY Ida Wobker 64¢ $5 31h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Berfu Cengiz 71¢ $131 31h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Berfu Cengiz 67¢ $27 31h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $14 31h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Ida Wobker BUY Ida Wobker 65¢ $90 32h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 51¢ $132 3d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 52¢ $220 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $1,016 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $1,016 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 26¢ $77 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $83 3d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 52¢ $37 3d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 52¢ $37 3d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 51¢ $13 3d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Romboli/Winegar 46¢ $446 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $244 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $112 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $17 3d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 58¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $667 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,815.07 · official $3,815.07 (match) · 804 history records