Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa03f…2508 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-25%) realized −$8 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
politics 24% −$60
crypto 15% −$1
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage13d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $63 $3 −$60 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $56 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $66 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.52 · official $193.52 (match) · 15 history records