Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa03f…1cd3 world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$3
politics 25% −$5
other 25% −$5
sports 11% −$5
economics 5% $0
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 25 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 67 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 1% -9.8%
all 86 -4.9% -14.0% 36% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 3% -10.2%
10% -22.2% 3% -18.8%
15% -29.7% 2% -26.7%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage527d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 84¢ 85¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $13 −$7 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $45 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $28 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $70 −$4 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $32 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $26 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $26 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $26 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $21 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $20 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $24 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.56 · official $28.90 · 315 history records