Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa03e…727a crypto 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$686 (-7%) realized −$752 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%99W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$26
14 days−$594
30 days−$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$825
world 20% −$137
crypto 18% +$147
other 16% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +63.3% +47.8% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 144 +17.0% +5.9% 39% 36% -17.4%
≤90d 166 +7.3% -2.9% 37% 34% -18.3%
all 265 -0.5% -9.9% 37% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 35% -16.7%
10% -18.6% 32% -24.6%
15% -26.4% 28% -31.9%
20% -33.6% 22% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$752
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses99 / 166
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions5
Markets (closed)265 / 271
History coverage186d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 81¢ $0 $49 +$49 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 10¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $9 +$6 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $11 +$10 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $106 +$60 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $35 +$18 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$91 +1011%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 +$13 +47%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 +$13 +35%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$18 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$41 +54%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$66 +1150%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$65 +150%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$86 -83%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$30 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$29 +94%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$47 +88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $70 +$21 +30%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$34 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $80 −$80 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $31 +$9 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +238%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $13 +$207 +1548%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $11 25h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $35 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $106 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $106 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $59 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $23 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $40 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $6 4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $32 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $28 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $27 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $9 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $0 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $37 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.51 · official $112.52 (match) · 656 history records