Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa034…0c9c other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$16
politics 29% −$12
sports 10% +$7
economics 6% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage130d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $397 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $232 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $200 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $402 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $444 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $414 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $405 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $473 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $444 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $171 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $171 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 26d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $212 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $212 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 35d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 35d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $236 41d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 42d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $164 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 42d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 43d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 44d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $209 44d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $209 44d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $213 44d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $213 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $233 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 45d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $199 45d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 46d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 398 history records