Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa034…0644 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-11%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$100
world 6% −$4
other 3% −$20
culture 1% $0
politics 1% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 58% 25% -13.3%
≤30d 18 -14.2% -22.4% 56% 28% -15.1%
≤90d 18 -14.2% -22.4% 56% 28% -15.1%
all 61 -26.6% -33.6% 36% 28% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 28% -21.9%
10% -40.0% 23% -29.4%
15% -45.8% 20% -36.2%
20% -51.1% 11% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage210d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$18 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$12 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12PM ET Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 18 $16 −$13 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET Feb 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 05 $10 +$13 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Feb 05 $25 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4PM ET Feb 05 $9 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 25? Jan 28 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1PM ET Jan 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12AM ET Jan 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 24 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11PM ET Jan 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 24 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11AM ET Jan 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET Jan 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 11PM ET Jan 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Nov 30 $2 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Nov 30 $3 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Nov 30 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Nov 30 $6 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 30 $19 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 1PM ET Nov 28 $8 +$6 +77%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 28 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 4PM ET Nov 27 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 3PM ET Nov 27 $8 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 1PM ET Nov 27 $5 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 11AM ET Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 10AM ET Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? Nov 27 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 3PM ET Nov 26 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Nov 26 $1 $0 -18%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $33 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records