Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa032…2090 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized +$41 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day101.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1
other 4% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 54% -5.4%
≤30d 65 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 54% -5.4%
≤90d 65 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 54% -5.4%
all 65 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 54% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 54% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 43% -14.5%
15% -23.6% 32% -22.8%
20% -31.1% 22% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,576
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 27
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions16
Markets (closed)65 / 81
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day101.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 64¢ 64¢ $655 $650 −$5 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ 40¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 56¢ 58¢ $207 $216 +$9 (+4%)
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Fabian Marozsan 41¢ 42¢ $159 $164 +$6 (+4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 33¢ 16¢ $198 $99 −$99 (-50%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Guiomar Maristany 58¢ 57¢ $79 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 50¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Andrej Nedic 87¢ 88¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 50¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 49¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Marko Topo 61¢ 66¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 67¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 66¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Ilia Simakin 37¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Over 38¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $9 +$8 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $40 +$50 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $14 +$15 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$31 -86%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $81 +$21 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $66 +$65 +98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $11 +$11 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $35 +$22 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $7 +$2 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $20 +$3 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $13 −$3 -22%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $2 +$3 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $10 +$14 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $53 −$22 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 22 $4 +$1 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $32 +$3 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $6 +$1 +25%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $6 +$2 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $10 +$12 +124%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $22 +$7 +32%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $1 +$1 +88%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $8 −$3 -39%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $12 +$3 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $14 −$9 -65%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 22 $3 +$2 +75%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo Jun 22 $12 +$5 +46%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $22 +$5 +23%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$2 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $24 +$8 +33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs James McCabe Jun 22 $3 +$2 +44%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Clement Tabur Jun 22 $3 +$2 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $12 +$3 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs Michael Zheng Jun 22 $32 +$15 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ $163 2m
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $259 3m
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ $81 12m
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $388 13m
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 87¢ $18 55m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Guiomar Maristany 58¢ $80 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $159 1h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 56¢ $1 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 33¢ $7 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 33¢ $49 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 33¢ $49 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 33¢ $92 15h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 56¢ $206 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Paul Jubb 41¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $41 16h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $41 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 40¢ $2 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Liam Draxl 42¢ $2 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 87¢ $4 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $40 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 50¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 51¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 51¢ $3 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $21 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 87¢ $4 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 89¢ $20 17h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $13 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,576.04 · official $1,576.04 (match) · 158 history records