Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa032…91d5 crypto 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (417 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,625 (-9%) realized −$1,650 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%67W / 507L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day417.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,123
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (417 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-83.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 -82.9% -84.5% 11% 10% -60.8%
≤30d 574 -81.3% -83.1% 12% 10% -54.1%
≤90d 574 -81.3% -83.1% 12% 10% -54.1%
all 574 -81.3% -83.1% 12% 10% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover417.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -83.1% 10% -54.1%
10% ← realistic here -84.7% 9% -58.5%
15% -86.2% 7% -62.5%
20% -87.5% 4% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -63% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$35 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,650
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses67 / 507
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)574 / 150
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day417.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Up 49¢ 100¢ $24 $50 +$25 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$19 -11810%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $35 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 3500 history records