Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa032…dfbd other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%46W / 56L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$10
politics 41% +$7
other 9% +$7
finance 3% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 0% -9.4%
all 102 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses46 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage470d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $227 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $162 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $334 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $376 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $161 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $107 −$2 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $180 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $156 +$8 +5%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $934 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $935 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $983 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $932 +$2 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $223 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $7 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Sep 24 $4 +$4 +101%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $165 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $97 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $67 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $76 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $60 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $62 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $164 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $162 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $113 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $156 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $128 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $143 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.63 · official $165.63 (match) · 377 history records