Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa032…ea08 politics 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$25
politics 33% −$20
sports 13% +$48
economics 3% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 144 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×13.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage129d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $257 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $288 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $324 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $290 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $276 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $561 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $307 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $280 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $595 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $639 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $343 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 5h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 5h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 18d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 19d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 19d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $241 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 27d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 27d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $254 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $254 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 28d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 31d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 31d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 32d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $247 32d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $247 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.99 · official $38.99 (match) · 438 history records