Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa032…679e crypto 1076 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,328 (-9%) realized −$4,235 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%574W / 483L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,175
7 days−$4,056
14 days−$4,061
30 days−$4,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3,421
crypto 25% −$1,126
politics 9% −$828
sports 3% −$80
other 1% −$43
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$16
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.3% -18.8% 38% 14% -29.5%
≤30d 476 -8.4% -17.1% 58% 33% -20.4%
≤90d 1057 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 38% -20.8%
all 1057 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 38% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 38% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 23% -28.4%
15% -33.1% 11% -35.3%
20% -39.6% 6% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,615
Realized−$4,235
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses574 / 483
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1057 / 1076
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1057 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 80¢ 71¢ $689 $615 −$75 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $478 $523 +$45 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 83¢ $118 $119 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $90 $57 −$33 (-37%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 24¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? No 24¢ 30¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes 42¢ 11¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-74%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +164%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $552 +$55 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $427 −$80 -19%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$17 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,495 −$188 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,070 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,621 −$1,644 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,268 −$1,178 -36%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$15 -38%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $100 +$43 +43%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $220 +$17 +8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $413 +$22 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $610 −$62 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1,387 −$126 -9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $215 −$13 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $98 −$9 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $100 −$1 -0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $9 +$3 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $597 +$60 +10%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -5%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Jun 11 $25 +$2 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $57 −$11 -20%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $91 −$19 -21%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $45 +$32 +71%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$11 -56%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 09 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $51 −$29 -57%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 12m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 12m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $86 13m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $118 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 6h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 7h
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $48 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $118 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $35 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $40 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $689 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $50 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $250 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $281 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $759 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $113 8h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $25 8h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $27 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $61 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $5 8h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $143 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,615.07 · official $1,614.72 (match) · 3500 history records