Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa031…ba6b other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$840 (-22%) realized −$836 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%24W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$100
14 days−$663
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$608
other 16% −$232
sports 3% −$128
world 1% −$15
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -28.9% -35.7% 10% 10% -40.0%
≤30d 93 -29.2% -36.0% 25% 20% -29.3%
≤90d 108 -36.9% -43.0% 22% 19% -33.1%
all 110 -38.1% -44.0% 22% 18% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 18% -33.5%
10% -49.3% 16% -39.8%
15% -54.2% 12% -45.6%
20% -58.7% 10% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$836
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses24 / 86
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage154d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $6 +$29 +474%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$36 +711%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$81 +786%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$73 +711%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$44 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.14 · official $91.14 (match) · 171 history records