Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa02f…d910 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$57 (+4%) realized +$51 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$20
14 days−$15
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$88
other 11% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 60% -21.1%
≤30d 24 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 62% -6.8%
≤90d 24 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 62% -6.8%
all 30 +30.3% +17.9% 73% 63% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 63% -1.3%
10% +6.6% 57% -10.8%
15% -3.7% 40% -19.4%
20% -13.2% 27% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage257d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 96¢ 99¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will England win on 2026 Jun 28 $20 +$14 +68%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. F Jun 27 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$14 +276%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Croatia win on 2026- Jun 24 $6 +$6 +104%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Algeria win on 2026 Jun 23 $5 +$7 +133%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $44 +$16 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $124 −$14 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $77 −$4 -5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? Oct 31 $47 −$1 -1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $20 +$8 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $25 +$14 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $200 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 35¢ $10 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will England win on 2026 BUY 59¢ $20 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. F SELL 91¢ $30 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. F BUY 30¢ $10 37h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 31¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 41¢ $10 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Sp BUY 24¢ $6 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Croatia win on 2026- BUY 48¢ $6 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total BUY 37¢ $10 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Algeria win on 2026 BUY 42¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $22 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $50 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 52¢ $5 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $94 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 96¢ $90 13d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 84¢ $12 13d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $10 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $26 13d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $15 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $50 13d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $44 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $20 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $16 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.46 · official $205.83 (match) · 74 history records