Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa02d…8f5c sports 190 markets active 3d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$111 (-9%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%63W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$27
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$114
other 8% −$4
world 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 5% 5% -17.5%
≤30d 118 -9.4% -18.0% 24% 13% -19.8%
≤90d 190 -12.1% -20.5% 33% 25% -18.2%
all 190 -12.1% -20.5% 33% 25% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 25% -18.2%
10% -28.1% 19% -26.1%
15% -35.0% 7% -33.2%
20% -41.4% 4% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses63 / 127
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage72d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 −$2 -42%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $16 −$4 -24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $2 $0 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $4 $0 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $4 −$1 -21%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $4 −$1 -15%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $8 $0 -4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $4 −$1 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $4 +$2 +46%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $4 $0 +5%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $4 $0 -12%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $4 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $12 −$1 -7%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $4 −$1 -16%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $4 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $8 −$1 -18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $16 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 49¢ $3 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 63¢ $4 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $4 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $4 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $4 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 74¢ $4 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 52¢ $4 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 70¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 52¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $4 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 31¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $4 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $3 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $4 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $4 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $3 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 64¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 61¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 64¢ $4 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 62¢ $4 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 81¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 75¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records