Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa027…39c6 politics 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$1
world 25% $0
other 20% +$1
crypto 11% $0
finance 7% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage327d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $17 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Steroid" this week? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $3 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $51 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jul 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 25 $6 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 2m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $12 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $23 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $34 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $34 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $8 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $26 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $34 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $30 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records