Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa024…d617
sports · 87 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$53 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$10
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage620d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 71¢ 46¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 37¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 49¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage FURIA 32¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage PARIVISION 48¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs FURIA 48¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov May 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on May 13 $1 $0 -5%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 May 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 13 $1 $0 -16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $20 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $17 −$13 -77%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $4 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 04 $1 $0 -18%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? May 04 $1 $0 -8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Apr 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$240
sports 33% +$54
world 12% +$66
politics 8% +$95
crypto 1% −$28
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $28 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $20 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $20 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $20 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 27d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $20 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 30d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 30d
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Martin Damm 42¢ $1 30d
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on SELL No 86¢ $1 30d
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 SELL Mayweather 62¢ $1 30d
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 BUY Mayweather 64¢ $1 30d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 30d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 30d
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on BUY No 90¢ $1 30d
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day SELL No 93¢ $1 30d
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day BUY No 95¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.7% -39.1% 40% 20% -36.4%
≤30d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 30% 20% -62.2%
≤90d 53 -28.6% -35.4% 9% 8% -66.3%
all 86 -15.6% -23.6% 29% 22% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 22% -10.6%
10% -30.9% 16% -19.2%
15% -37.6% 16% -27.0%
20% -43.7% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.61 · official $9.61 (match) · 260 history records