Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa023…6670 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
politics 24% −$3
economics 17% −$2
crypto 16% −$2
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage89d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jun 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 22 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $29 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Mar 26 $25 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 26 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,230 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,175 2h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,158 2h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 2h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $822 3h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $302 3h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $37 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 3h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $47 25h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos SELL No 100¢ $19 25h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $22 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 26h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $15 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 26h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos BUY No 100¢ $19 26h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $858 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 27h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $319 27h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 27h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $168 66d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $168 66d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $168 66d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $168 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records