Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa023…8649 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
politics 35% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage106d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 13h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $81 36d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $81 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 38d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 38d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 42d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 42d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $82 61d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $82 62d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $82 63d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 64d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 67d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 68d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 68d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 68d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 85d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 93d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 93d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $82 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records