Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa022…77f8
world · 108 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$343,439 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$207,989 · open +$89,761
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$715,464
Realized+$207,989
Unrealized+$89,761
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions41
Markets (closed)96 / 108
Avg bet$41,053
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 41 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,766
7 days−$8,394
14 days+$124,256
30 days+$135,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $185,377 $241,185 +$55,808 (+30%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 98¢ $102,179 $105,360 +$3,181 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 66¢ $50,000 $65,950 +$15,950 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $17,160 $34,338 +$17,178 (+100%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $50,000 $34,050 −$15,950 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 34¢ $14,299 $33,579 +$19,280 (+135%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 32¢ $38,619 $33,182 −$5,437 (-14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 97¢ $29,346 $32,717 +$3,371 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $15,591 $28,919 +$13,328 (+85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $25,852 $28,032 +$2,179 (+8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $20,723 $22,980 +$2,257 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 61¢ $9,148 $9,142 −$6 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 14¢ 54¢ $1,340 $4,980 +$3,639 (+271%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $4,226 $4,665 +$439 (+10%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 66¢ $4,320 $3,930 −$390 (-9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $5,593 $3,728 −$1,865 (-33%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $1,820 $2,905 +$1,085 (+60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 24¢ 46¢ $1,384 $2,728 +$1,344 (+97%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 37¢ 93¢ $993 $2,510 +$1,518 (+153%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 24¢ 46¢ $1,177 $2,249 +$1,072 (+91%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 46¢ 92¢ $915 $1,839 +$925 (+101%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $8,116 $1,707 −$6,409 (-79%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 12¢ 12¢ $1,670 $1,673 +$4 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 5¢ 5¢ $1,752 $1,497 −$255 (-15%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Yes 24¢ 35¢ $1,022 $1,474 +$452 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $977 +$16,275 +1665%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$7,069 +29329986%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $2,531 −$1,815 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $318 −$664 -209%
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? Jun 12 $11 +$152 +1413%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $136 −$136 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 12 $248 −$248 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 12 $0 +$9,312 +29010412%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Jun 12 $1,642 −$1,800 -110%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 12 $9,504 −$2,888 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 12 $244 −$149 -61%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $3,063 −$3,758 -123%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 12 $11,646 −$11,619 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 12 $10,288 +$9,885 +96%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Jun 12 $350 +$852 +244%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Jun 12 $756 −$756 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $3,331 −$3,331 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Jun 12 $13 +$986 +7795%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3,646 +$2,105 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 12 $8,118 −$7,968 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $29,783 +$3,568 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $21,883 +$2,954 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $1,174 +$179 +15%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $225 +$384 +171%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $18,037 −$14,513 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $27,653 −$11,988 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $3,156 −$178 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $911,318 +$45,756 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 02 $42,226 −$2,376 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 02 $1,624 +$77 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $812 +$130 +16%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,084 +$3,016 +145%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $19,508 +$10,644 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $116,723 +$109,421 +94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $12,906 −$3,163 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $123,104 −$76,597 -62%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $2,945 +$13,597 +462%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $71,699 +$22,182 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $42,487 +$10,006 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 28 $305 +$422 +138%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $214,497 +$24,886 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $9,105 +$735 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $73,080 −$15,964 -22%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $23,170 +$2,015 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$196,131
politics 28% +$46,765
crypto 21% +$40,457
other 3% +$5,574
finance 0% −$1,923
tech 0% −$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3,551 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $63 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $12,723 15h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $12,553 15h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4,618 15h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $6,666 15h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 97¢ $2 22h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 97¢ $13,308 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $63 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $4,678 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,384 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,358 33h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 20¢ $30 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 20¢ $10 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 9¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3,173 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 9¢ $0 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 20¢ $20 36h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 20¢ $352 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $7,838 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,545 36h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 20¢ $5 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $160 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $64 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+106.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +267.5% +232.5% 40% 40% -21.3%
≤30d 81 +120.3% +99.3% 54% 43% -2.9%
≤90d 96 +128.4% +106.7% 55% 45% -1.6%
all 96 +128.4% +106.7% 55% 45% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +106.7% 45% -1.6%
10% +86.9% 34% -11.0%
15% ← realistic here +68.8% 29% -19.6%
20% +52.3% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $715,463.55 · official $715,463.55 (match) · 3500 history records