Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa021…d5c9 sports 184 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$309 (-3%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%74W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$64
14 days−$382
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$595
other 18% +$491
crypto 15% −$387
weather 7% −$17
world 1% +$26
tech 1% −$8
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.1% -15.0% 28% 28% -15.2%
≤30d 174 -18.1% -25.9% 37% 34% -15.5%
≤90d 184 -13.6% -21.9% 40% 36% -14.1%
all 184 -13.6% -21.9% 40% 36% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -14.1%
10% -29.3% 31% -22.3%
15% -36.2% 23% -29.8%
20% -42.4% 20% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$30 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses74 / 110
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage30d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $40 −$7 -18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $61 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$23 -77%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 13 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$31 +122%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$15 +49%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$12 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $22 −$18 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$6 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 10 $0 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $1 $0 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $23 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 70¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 61¢ $24 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 52¢ $33 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $39 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 51¢ $40 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 47¢ $59 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 17¢ $7 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $29 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $25 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $14 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $6 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $19 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $14 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $38 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 574 history records