Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa020…d807 other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,046 (+4%) realized +$5,041 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%70W / 107L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$4,676
sports 12% −$967
other 7% +$3,658
tech 2% −$2,020
politics 1% −$240
crypto 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.4% -46.1% 17% 17% -69.6%
≤30d 12 -40.4% -46.1% 17% 17% -69.6%
≤90d 12 -40.4% -46.1% 17% 17% -69.6%
all 177 -1.5% -10.8% 40% 29% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 29% -5.8%
10% -19.4% 25% -14.8%
15% -27.2% 22% -23.1%
20% -34.3% 20% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$107 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$5,041
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses70 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage514d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$20 +196%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $118 −$101 -86%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Trump visit China before September? Aug 26 $148 −$146 -99%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Aug 26 $32 −$12 -38%
Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason? Aug 26 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $55 −$28 -51%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $32 +$4 +14%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $120 −$20 -17%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Aug 26 $104 +$16 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Aug 26 $400 −$259 -65%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Aug 26 $599 −$43 -7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Aug 26 $737 −$81 -11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Aug 26 $500 −$143 -29%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $305 +$185 +61%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 19 $5,214 +$310 +6%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? Aug 15 $157 +$243 +155%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 14 $50 +$52 +105%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 08 $313 +$296 +95%
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? Aug 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 07 $102 −$78 -77%
Will Yuli Edelstein leave Likud Party by August 31? Aug 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $100 −$38 -38%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 02 $8,875 −$239 -3%
Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $2,207 −$1,904 -86%
Houthi strike on Israel before August? Jul 29 $135 −$37 -28%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $3 +$1 +50%
Israeli parliament dissolved before August? Jul 24 $38 −$37 -98%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 24 $29,578 −$418 -1%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Jul 23 $77 −$35 -45%
US strikes Yemen before August? Jul 15 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Jannik Sinner win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz? Jul 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Jannik Sinner? Jul 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 13 $6,439 −$556 -9%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Taylor Fritz? Jul 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz? Jul 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $50 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $50 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 12¢ $17 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 13¢ $18 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 16h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 1¢ $11 17h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 2¢ $20 30h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 30h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 30h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 30h
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 295d
Will Trump visit China before September? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 295d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 295d
Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 295d
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 295d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.20 · official $40.20 (match) · 1500 history records