Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa01e…45e7 other 1371 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+0%) realized +$204 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1342W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day119.3pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$254
14 days−$105
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$241
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 557 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 1397 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 1397 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 1% -9.6%
all 1397 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 1% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1342 / 55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1397 / 1371
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day119.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 20¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 8m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 13m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 18m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 23m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 39m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 43m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.03 · official $66.03 (match) · 3500 history records