Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A0 0xa01d…3727 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,023 (+42%) realized +$1,007 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$127per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$731

7 days+$814

14 days+$990

30 days+$990

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+44.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+74.4%	+57.8%	30%	30%	+53.0%
≤30d	14	+59.5%	+44.3%	36%	36%	+38.1%
≤90d	14	+59.5%	+44.3%	36%	36%	+38.1%
all	14	+59.5%	+44.3%	36%	36%	+38.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.3%	36%	+38.1%
10%	+30.5%	36%	+24.9%
15%	+17.9%	29%	+12.8%
20%	+6.4%	21%	+1.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +74% → late +45% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$356 vs −$88 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$516

Realized+$1,007

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage9d

Avg bet$127

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	29¢	$100	$140	+$40 (+40%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	21¢	25¢	$100	$117	+$17 (+17%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	29¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$100	$94	−$6 (-6%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	7¢	$100	$61	−$39 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$103	+$731	+712%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 23	$205	−$200	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$118	−$47	-40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$234	+$108	+46%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$103	+$564	+550%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$103	−$78	-76%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	Jun 19	$103	−$49	-48%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$102	+$268	+262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$402	+$108	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$205	2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	SELL Yes	10¢	$70	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	50¢	$342	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	33¢	$30	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	33¢	$204	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	SELL Yes	2¢	$24	5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	SELL Yes	2¢	$54	6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	6d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$302	9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	79¢	$100	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.15 · official $516.15 (match) · 30 history records