Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A0 0xa01d…dda2 sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%56W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$157
14 days−$322
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$215
other 29% +$70
crypto 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.0% -10.5% 53% 32% -13.9%
≤30d 86 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 90 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 43% -11.6%
all 95 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 43% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 43% -11.4%
10% -17.6% 31% -19.8%
15% -25.5% 13% -27.6%
20% -32.8% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses56 / 39
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage176d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $64 −$7 -11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $93 $0 -0%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $108 −$15 -14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $84 +$24 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 +$9 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $45 +$4 +10%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $57 −$9 -16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $67 −$4 -6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $29 −$1 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$26 -43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $55 +$5 +10%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 +$7 +15%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $36 +$8 +23%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $47 −$13 -28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$28 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$2 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $32 −$15 -47%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $36 −$5 -14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $34 +$2 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 +$3 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $33 −$2 -7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $37 −$3 -9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $163 −$144 -88%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $159 +$4 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $129 +$30 +24%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $116 +$12 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $109 +$7 +6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $118 −$8 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$16 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $47 +$7 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$13 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $47 −$12 -27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 −$13 -90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $23 −$8 -36%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$4 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$12 -47%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $96 −$70 -73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $120 −$25 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $84 11m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 83¢ $57 27m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 42m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $64 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $93 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $93 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $108 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $84 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $49 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $45 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL 48¢ $22 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 53¢ $25 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 83¢ $28 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $29 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $55 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.78 · official $82.78 (match) · 196 history records