Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa01a…cf28 crypto 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$117 (-32%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$122
other 22% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -53.2% -57.7% 0% 0% -57.7%
≤30d 231 -72.7% -75.3% 3% 3% -64.3%
≤90d 231 -72.7% -75.3% 3% 3% -64.3%
all 231 -72.7% -75.3% 3% 3% -64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.3% 3% -64.3%
10% -77.7% 3% -67.7%
15% -79.8% 3% -70.9%
20% -81.8% 3% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×11.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 223
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $54 −$29 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.59 · official $24.60 (match) · 427 history records