Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa019…32fb sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-7%) realized −$48 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$35
other 27% +$29
world 19% −$77
tech 10% −$23
finance 9% −$19
crypto 1% −$13
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.7% -12.8% 44% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 36 -3.7% -12.8% 44% 33% -3.5%
≤90d 36 -3.7% -12.8% 44% 33% -3.5%
all 52 -15.4% -23.5% 40% 29% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 29% -16.2%
10% -30.8% 29% -24.2%
15% -37.5% 27% -31.6%
20% -43.6% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage109d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 22¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $30 −$8 -28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +474%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $40 +$28 +69%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Maccabi Raanana Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $30 +$35 +113%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $30 +$14 +44%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$27 -65%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $31 −$2 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 10 $10 +$1 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 09 $14 +$5 +33%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 03 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $10 +$4 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $1 +$1 +150%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $5 $0 +2%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 39m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $4 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.29 · official $81.29 (match) · 106 history records