Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa016…c094 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$10 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$36
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.4% -58.7% 0% 0% -55.7%
≤30d 5 -36.2% -42.3% 20% 20% -40.2%
≤90d 5 -36.2% -42.3% 20% 20% -40.2%
all 5 -36.2% -42.3% 20% 20% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 20% -40.2%
10% -47.8% 0% -45.9%
15% -52.8% 0% -51.2%
20% -57.5% 0% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$621
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $207 $208 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $161 $164 +$4 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $153 $151 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $91 $89 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-89%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -37%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $90 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $153 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $162 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $207 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.99 · official $620.99 (match) · 38 history records