Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa016…1451 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-38%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.1% -50.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
≤30d 9 -45.1% -50.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
≤90d 9 -45.1% -50.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
all 9 -45.1% -50.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.3% 33% -72.9%
10% -55.1% 33% -75.5%
15% -59.4% 33% -77.9%
20% -63.4% 22% -80.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $140 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $43 −$40 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records