trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? | Yes | 44¢ | 60¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+36%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 14? | No | 81¢ | 80¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? | Yes | 13¢ | 3¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-79%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June | Jun 14 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | Jun 14 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June | Jun 14 | $14 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | Jun 14 | $14 | −$4 | -27% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 14 | $8 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? | Jun 14 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu | Jun 14 | $6 | −$2 | -37% |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? | Jun 13 | $13 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $7 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro | Jun 13 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? | Jun 13 | $9 | −$1 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 8% | 0% | -19.4% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 8% | 0% | -19.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 8% | 0% | -19.4% |
| all | 13 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 8% | 0% | -19.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -26.1% | 0% | -19.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -33.2% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 15% | -39.6% | 0% | -34.2% |
| 20% | -45.5% | 0% | -40.6% |