Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa011…3205 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$7
world 25% +$5
politics 13% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 6% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 0% -8.5%
all 44 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage302d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $75 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $50 −$7 -13%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $34 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $33 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $19 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $1 $0 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 -19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 25 $40 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 24 $2 $0 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 35h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $36 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.10 · official $38.10 (match) · 286 history records