Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa00a…9db3 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-14%) realized −$41 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$72
sports 47% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.3% -17.9% 25% 25% -21.7%
≤30d 8 -9.3% -17.9% 25% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 8 -9.3% -17.9% 25% 25% -21.7%
all 8 -9.3% -17.9% 25% 25% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 25% -21.7%
10% -25.8% 12% -29.2%
15% -32.9% 12% -36.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $108 $99 −$10 (-9%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 31¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $97 +$14 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$2 -11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$17 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$2 -16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $14 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $36 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $37 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $35 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 76¢ $22 11h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $96 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $97 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $23 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $102 13h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.03 · official $123.03 (match) · 19 history records