Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A0 0xa009…a49f crypto 572 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+2%) realized +$160 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%408W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$368
14 days+$382
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +8.0% -2.3% 90% 60% -2.6%
≤30d 571 +1.4% -8.2% 71% 42% -7.9%
≤90d 571 +1.4% -8.2% 71% 42% -7.9%
all 571 +1.4% -8.2% 71% 42% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 42% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 26% -16.7%
15% -25.0% 10% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses408 / 163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)571 / 572
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Down 76¢ 78¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET Jun 27 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET Jun 27 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$15 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 26 $34 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$15 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$9 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $33 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.07 · official $34.09 · 1491 history records