Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa008…f4ac crypto 3 markets active 27d ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,804 (-39%) realized −$2,804 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,377per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$4,790
tech 30% +$2,019
politics 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 33% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 33% -46.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 33% -51.3%
15% -51.8% 33% -56.0%
20% -56.6% 33% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,019 vs −$2,411 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage121d
Avg bet$2,377
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,984 −$4,790 -96%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $2,114 +$2,019 +96%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Jan 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $171 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $955 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,040 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,040 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,040 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $520 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 27d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,133 146d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 147d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $480 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $490 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 148d
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $416 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 63¢ $128 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 64¢ $126 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $139 148d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $200 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records