Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa006…8a96 crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%74W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.7% -15.5% 57% 43% -29.2%
≤30d 14 -6.7% -15.5% 57% 43% -29.2%
≤90d 159 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 33% -16.3%
all 159 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 33% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 33% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 25% -24.3%
15% -24.7% 21% -31.6%
20% -32.1% 14% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses74 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage48d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 10 $9 +$3 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $17 −$6 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 05 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 05 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 05 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 05 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 05 $17 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 05 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 05 $19 −$15 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 05 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 05 $22 −$16 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 05 $88 −$33 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 05 $54 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 05 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 05 $27 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 05 $72 −$10 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1723 history records