Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa004…0abb world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$116 (+11%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$100
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$107
sports 12% +$25
crypto 9% −$27
other 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.5% +15.3% 67% 67% +14.2%
≤30d 3 +27.5% +15.3% 67% 67% +14.2%
≤90d 25 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 44% -2.6%
all 43 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 56% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 56% +0.4%
10% -20.1% 49% -9.2%
15% -27.8% 30% -18.0%
20% -34.9% 23% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage119d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $200 −$9 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $171 +$107 +62%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 29 $12 +$6 +52%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 24 $76 +$24 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $50 −$17 -34%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $50 +$14 +28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $32 $0 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $9 +$7 +74%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $20 +$16 +79%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 05 $7 +$4 +54%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $40 −$27 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $40 +$33 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +11%
Prince Andrew charged by March 31? Mar 08 $4 +$4 +105%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $20 −$16 -82%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -92%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Mar 04 $20 +$5 +23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $35 −$9 -26%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 02 $15 +$4 +28%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 01 $18 +$8 +44%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$1 +28%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$5 +92%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $11 +$4 +37%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $19 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 27 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 19 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $191 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 33d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $40 55d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 64d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? SELL Yes 93¢ $50 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 64d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 73d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 80d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 82d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 82d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 83d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 100d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records