Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa004…a04f sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+35%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$140
other 27% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +41.0% +27.6% 88% 88% +30.4%
≤30d 8 +41.0% +27.6% 88% 88% +30.4%
≤90d 8 +41.0% +27.6% 88% 88% +30.4%
all 8 +41.0% +27.6% 88% 88% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.6% 88% +30.4%
10% ← realistic here +15.4% 75% +17.9%
15% +4.2% 62% +6.5%
20% -6.0% 62% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$44 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$38 +78%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $99 +$61 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $45 +$36 +81%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$50 +98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$18 +24%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $43 +$30 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 16m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 43m
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige SELL Moerani Bouzige 100¢ $100 45m
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige SELL Moerani Bouzige 88¢ $60 1h
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 58¢ $99 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $45 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 95¢ $45 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 92¢ $37 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $45 2h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $45 3h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 86¢ $39 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $39 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $48 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $15 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $39 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 5h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $73 5h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 58¢ $43 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records