Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa004…e6e6 sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$40 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%80W / 71L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$100
14 days−$126
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$121
world 9% −$48
other 8% −$17
crypto 8% −$58
politics 7% +$14
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -40.8% -46.5% 41% 28% -22.1%
≤30d 81 -28.4% -35.2% 49% 36% -15.9%
≤90d 151 -2.1% -11.5% 53% 43% -8.9%
all 151 -2.1% -11.5% 53% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -8.9%
10% -19.9% 25% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 13% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses80 / 71
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)151 / 160
History coverage58d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 99¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 62¢ $37 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $18 $13 −$4 (-25%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 82¢ 95¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 68¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 23¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 52¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$8 (-72%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $38 −$21 -54%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 +$10 +35%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $38 +$14 +37%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 +$11 +44%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $37 +$3 +8%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$8 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $34 +$1 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $38 +$11 +30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $0 2m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 14m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 14m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 14m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 50¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 51¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 46¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 39¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.73 · official $115.77 (match) · 1052 history records