Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa002…e840
other · 209 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,348 +47%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,315 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$380
Realized+$1,315
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses40 / 138
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions39
Markets (closed)178 / 209
History coverage31d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day105.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 39 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$114
14 days+$308
30 days+$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 28¢ 43¢ $74 $115 +$41 (+55%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $28 $46 +$19 (+68%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-22%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $5 $15 +$9 (+176%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$10 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-77%)
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $78 +$32 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $6 +$12 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $127 +$144 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$20 +411%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$7 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $8 +$20 +238%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $13 +$23 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $220 +$578 +262%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% +$1,368
sports 8% −$98
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $54 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $6 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $27 7h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 10h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $37 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $23 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $8 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -52.4% -56.9% 14% 11% -26.9%
≤30d 176 +44.3% +30.6% 22% 21% +32.9%
≤90d 178 +43.7% +30.0% 22% 21% +32.9%
all 178 +43.7% +30.0% 22% 21% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.0% 21% +32.9%
10% ← realistic here +17.5% 21% +20.2%
15% +6.2% 20% +8.6%
20% -4.2% 19% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.63 · official $379.68 (match) · 3500 history records