Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa001…b3be world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$32
other 7% +$2
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 18 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 23 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 67 -5.8% -14.7% 39% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 1% -9.9%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage490d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $92 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $103 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $104 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $110 −$6 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,014 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $114 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $298 +$4 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $130 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $59 −$24 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $121 −$18 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $144 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $158 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 13 $945 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $935 +$12 +1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -7%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 09 $1 $0 -27%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $116 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $116 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $92 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $92 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $52 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $54 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $103 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $89 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $103 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $97 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $21 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $81 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $102 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $102 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $56 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $102 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $102 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $103 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $51 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $54 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $18 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.00 · 235 history records