Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa001…4261 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$5 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1
world 36% +$5
politics 7% −$2
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 8% -9.3%
all 46 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage258d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+7%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $52 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $59 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $6 −$1 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Oct 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025? Oct 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $64 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $44 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $62 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $62 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $53 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $53 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $68 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $67 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.02 · official $69.02 (match) · 255 history records