Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa001…c586 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$817 (+5%) realized +$820 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$851
crypto 41% +$118
sports 10% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% -3.1%
≤30d 41 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% -3.1%
≤90d 41 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% -3.1%
all 41 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 56% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 49% -12.3%
15% -33.7% 41% -20.8%
20% -40.2% 32% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$193 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized+$820
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage2d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 56¢ 56¢ $400 $405 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 76¢ 73¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $204 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $511 +$214 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $310 +$239 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $217 +$133 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $413 +$356 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $620 +$265 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $544 +$168 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $444 −$431 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $531 −$507 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $658 +$304 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $83 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $207 +$191 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $207 −$34 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$29 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,008 +$289 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $988 −$967 -98%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: England O/ Jun 27 $650 +$516 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,999 +$313 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,068 +$408 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,215 +$854 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 −$46 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $358 −$351 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 0m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $201 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $44 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $254 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $44 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $349 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.44 · official $547.10 · 147 history records