Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fff…4035 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$5
other 19% +$7
politics 11% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 18% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 23 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 9% -10.2%
≤90d 23 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 9% -10.2%
all 63 +0.6% -8.9% 38% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage305d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $97 −$2 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2 $0 +26%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 05 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $13 +$1 +6%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 22 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $49 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $49 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $21 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $51 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $51 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $25 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $26 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records