Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fff…de2c crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$577 (-6%) realized −$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%102W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$912
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% -5.9%
≤30d 39 +4.2% -5.7% 67% 59% -20.6%
≤90d 143 -1.7% -11.1% 71% 52% -17.9%
all 143 -1.7% -11.1% 71% 52% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 52% -17.9%
10% -19.6% 34% -25.8%
15% -27.3% 20% -32.9%
20% -34.5% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$53 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses102 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage50d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $20 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET May 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET May 20 $208 −$176 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET May 20 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $203 +$31 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET May 19 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET May 18 $51 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET May 17 $203 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 17 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3AM ET May 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $252 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12AM ET May 17 $102 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $51 −$29 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $9 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $62 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records