Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9ffc…e6dd weather 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$527 (+2%) realized +$520 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%347W / 69L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$140
14 days+$234
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$534
crypto 1% −$11
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 13% -6.5%
≤30d 295 +6.4% -3.8% 91% 9% -7.6%
≤90d 413 +7.1% -3.1% 84% 12% -7.6%
all 416 +6.7% -3.5% 83% 12% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 12% -7.6%
10% -12.7% 6% -16.4%
15% -21.1% 4% -24.5%
20% -28.9% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses347 / 69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)416 / 418
History coverage99d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? No 86¢ 90¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $97 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $145 +$19 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $252 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $107 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $152 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 97¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 80¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 95¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 70¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $94 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $17 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $45 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.05 · official $189.05 (match) · 1906 history records