Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ffc…aa88 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-19%) realized −$59 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$100
other 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.7% -43.7% 20% 20% -41.7%
≤30d 5 -37.7% -43.7% 20% 20% -41.7%
≤90d 5 -37.7% -43.7% 20% 20% -41.7%
all 5 -37.7% -43.7% 20% 20% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 20% -41.7%
10% ← realistic here -49.1% 0% -47.3%
15% -54.0% 0% -52.4%
20% -58.5% 0% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $86 −$48 -55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $69 −$22 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $60 −$18 -29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $60 −$13 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 46m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 20¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 81¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 20¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 34¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $24 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 89¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 43¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 89¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $30 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $36 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 83¢ $30 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 29¢ $24 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $31 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 29¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $30 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.61 · official $16.44 (match) · 25 history records