Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9ffb…4966 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$705 (-12%) realized −$704 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$800
other 16% −$25
world 2% +$220
economics 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
≤30d 1 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
≤90d 3 +160.4% +135.6% 100% 100% +143.3%
all 33 +7.4% -2.8% 58% 55% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 55% -20.8%
10% -12.1% 48% -28.4%
15% -20.6% 42% -35.3%
20% -28.4% 30% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +169% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$173 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$704
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage254d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 17 $84 +$216 +257%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Apr 03 $55 +$94 +170%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 11 $159 −$159 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 11 $73 +$27 +37%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $60 +$4 +6%
Sharks vs. Avalanche Feb 16 $91 +$39 +43%
Nuggets vs. Wizards Jan 24 $7 +$3 +49%
Flames vs. Blue Jackets Jan 24 $46 +$34 +75%
Blues vs. Golden Knights Jan 13 $14 +$6 +41%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 01 $67 −$67 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Dec 30 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Heat vs. Nets Dec 26 $119 +$61 +52%
Oilers vs. Bruins Dec 26 $168 +$132 +79%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Dec 11 $125 −$125 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Dec 11 $156 +$44 +28%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO1) Nov 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $108 +$242 +223%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-11-20? Nov 20 $56 −$56 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 17 $38 +$62 +163%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 08 $64 +$136 +212%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 02 $297 −$297 -100%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Nov 01 $968 +$132 +14%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Joao Fonseca Oct 26 $799 −$799 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Oct 26 $664 +$136 +20%
Spread: Browns (-1.5) Oct 25 $324 +$276 +85%
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $168 −$168 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Oct 19 $118 +$42 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $65 26d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 51d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 52d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 52d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 53d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 53d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 53d
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 53d
Will England win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 37¢ $11 88d
Will England win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 37¢ $12 88d
Will England win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 37¢ $5 88d
Will England win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 37¢ $27 88d
Timberwolves vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 79¢ $8 96d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 10¢ $0 106d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 10¢ $1 106d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 10¢ $1 106d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 10¢ $7 106d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 10¢ $1 106d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Capitals 53¢ $8 107d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Capitals 53¢ $26 107d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Capitals 53¢ $124 107d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $64 119d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $60 119d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $73 119d
Sharks vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 70¢ $91 142d
Nuggets vs. Wizards BUY Nuggets 67¢ $4 155d
Nuggets vs. Wizards BUY Nuggets 67¢ $3 155d
Flames vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 57¢ $46 164d
Blues vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $14 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.25 · official $119.25 (match) · 76 history records