Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ffa…c8fc other 474 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$314 (+4%) realized +$230 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%123W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day91.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$150
14 days−$558
30 days−$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$61
sports 27% +$11
politics 7% +$46
world 1% −$13
tech 1% −$26
culture 0% −$21
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 +0.8% -8.8% 15% 15% -25.3%
≤30d 529 -15.4% -23.5% 19% 18% -22.8%
≤90d 578 -10.0% -18.6% 21% 20% -16.4%
all 578 -10.0% -18.6% 21% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 20% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 18% -24.4%
15% -33.5% 17% -31.7%
20% -40.0% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses123 / 455
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions29
Markets (closed)578 / 474
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day91.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? No 13¢ 87¢ $26 $174 +$148 (+569%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $56 $63 +$6 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 15¢ 36¢ $15 $36 +$20 (+132%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump say "Wonderful" this week? No 30¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 25¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 52¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? No 11¢ 2¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+198%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$13 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 309 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$16 -3123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$38 +2788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 12¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 12¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 12¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 8¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 8¢ $1 3h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 8¢ $2 3h
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Qatar be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Sta BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 4h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 25¢ $5 4h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 52¢ $4 4h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 2¢ $1 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 2¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY 4¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY 9¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 6¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 6¢ $2 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zeal SELL 25¢ $13 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 14h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.51 · official $465.51 · 3500 history records