Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ff8…274d crypto 1360 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,631 (-32%) realized −$25,631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%776W / 584L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 38% -18.4%
≤30d 719 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 1360 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 39% -18.7%
all 1360 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 39% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 26% -26.4%
15% -32.2% 18% -33.5%
20% -38.9% 12% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25,631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses776 / 584
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1360 / 1360
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1360 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$37 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $70 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records